Agentic Reliability Framework (ARF) – Technical Overview

🔒 The core ARF engine is access‑controlled and not open source.
Available to qualified pilots under outcome‑based pricing.
The public specification and demo UI are Apache 2.0.

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🧠 Core Engine (Protected)

Bayesian Risk Fusion

Conjugate Beta priors (online) + HMC logistic regression (offline) + optional hierarchical hyperpriors.

$$\text{risk}=w_{\text{conj}}\cdot \frac{\alpha }{\alpha +\beta }+w_{\text{hmc}}\cdot p_{\text{hmc}}+w_{\text{hyper}}\cdot {\mu }_{\text{hyper}}\backslash text\{risk\}\; =\; w\_\{\backslash text\{conj\}\}\backslash cdot\backslash frac\{\backslash alpha\}\{\backslash alpha+\backslash beta\}\; \backslash ;+\backslash ;\; w\_\{\backslash text\{hmc\}\}\backslash cdot\; p\_\{\backslash text\{hmc\}\}\; \backslash ;+\backslash ;\; w\_\{\backslash text\{hyper\}\}\backslash cdot\; \backslash mu\_\{\backslash text\{hyper\}\}$$

Weights are dynamic:

$$w_{\text{hmc}}=\min (0.6,\frac{n}{n_0}),w_{\text{hyper}}=\min (0.3,\text{base}\cdot (1-w_{\text{hmc}}))w\_\{\backslash text\{hmc\}\}\; =\; \backslash min\backslash left(0.6,\backslash ;\; \backslash frac\{n\}\{n\_0\}\backslash right),\; \backslash qquad\; w\_\{\backslash text\{hyper\}\}\; =\; \backslash min\backslash left(0.3,\backslash ;\; \backslash text\{base\}\backslash cdot(1-w\_\{\backslash text\{hmc\}\})\backslash right)$$

Posterior variance → 90% HDI for uncertainty quantification.

Expected Loss Minimisation

Chooses APPROVE, DENY, or ESCALATE by minimising:

Execution Ladder (Rust)

Mechanical gates: license, confidence, risk, rollback, causal.

Lyapunov Stability

Quadratic candidate $V(x,r) = \alpha r^2 + \beta|x - x_{\text{des}}|^2$ ensures healing actions converge.

Cryptographic Signing

Ed25519 signatures for HealingIntent (Python cryptography, Rust ed25519_dalek).

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📄 Public Specification (Open Source)

• Data models & API contracts – InfrastructureIntent, HealingIntent, RiskScore, GovernanceLoop
• Mathematics – Full Bayesian derivations, Lyapunov proof sketch
• Governance loop – Step‑by‑step flow with constants (COST_FP, COST_FN, EPISTEMIC_ESCALATION_THRESHOLD)

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🧪 Live Demos (Mock Data Only)

• Interactive Risk Demo – Adjust priors, see HMC simulation, semantic memory retrieval.
• Sandbox API – Mock FastAPI endpoint (returns simulated responses, no real Bayesian engine). Interactive docs available at /docs.

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🔗 Public Repos

Private repos (agentic_reliability_framework, arf-api, enterprise) are pilot/enterprise only.

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✈️ Pilot Access

Request access via email: petter2025us@outlook.com (include use case, volume, cloud environment).
Outcome‑based pricing – pay for risk reduction, not API calls.

• Live spec site
• Demo dashboard