Daily Papers

While explicit positional encodings such as RoPE are a primary source of positional information in Transformer decoders, the causal mask also provides positional information. In this work, we prove that the causal mask can induce position-dependent patterns in attention scores, even without parameters or causal dependency in the input. Our theoretical analysis indicates that the induced attention pattern tends to favor nearby query-key pairs, mirroring the behavior of common positional encodings. Empirical analysis confirms that trained models exhibit the same behavior, with learned parameters further amplifying these patterns. Notably, we found that the interaction of causal mask and RoPE distorts RoPE's relative attention score patterns into non-relative ones. We consistently observed this effect in modern large language models, suggesting the importance of considering the causal mask as a source of positional information alongside explicit positional encodings.

In view of the problem that each subchain in the chain-of-model (CoM) relies only on the information of the previous subchain and may lose long-range dependencies due to the causal mask blocking the global context flow between multi-level subchains, this work proposes a graph of causal evolution (GoCE). Its core principle is to map the implicit token representation into a differentiable and sparse causal adjacency matrix, then permeate causal constraints through each layer of calculation using causal-masked attention and causal-MoE. By combining intervention consistency loss test and self-evolution gate, the dynamic balance between causal structure learning and adaptive updating of transformer architecture is realized. The researcher built experimental environments in sandboxes built with Claude Sonnet 4, o4-mini-high, and DeepSeek R1 respectively with the transformer variant architecture introduced in GoCE. It is evaluated on publicly available datasets including CLUTRR, CLADDER, EX-FEVER, and CausalQA and compared with the baseline LLMs. The finding proves that GoCE strengthens the transformer's ability to capture long-range causal dependencies, while the ability to self-evolve is improved. It not only surpasses the design of CoM in terms of design principles, but also provides experience for future research on causal learning and continuous adaptive improvement.

We present SEED, an elaborate image tokenizer that empowers Large Language Models (LLMs) with the emergent ability to SEE and Draw at the same time. Research on image tokenizers has previously reached an impasse, as frameworks employing quantized visual tokens have lost prominence due to subpar performance and convergence in multimodal comprehension (compared to BLIP-2, etc.) or generation (compared to Stable Diffusion, etc.). Despite the limitations, we remain confident in its natural capacity to unify visual and textual representations, facilitating scalable multimodal training with LLM's original recipe. In this study, we identify two crucial principles for the architecture and training of SEED that effectively ease subsequent alignment with LLMs. (1) Image tokens should be independent of 2D physical patch positions and instead be produced with a 1D causal dependency, exhibiting intrinsic interdependence that aligns with the left-to-right autoregressive prediction mechanism in LLMs. (2) Image tokens should capture high-level semantics consistent with the degree of semantic abstraction in words, and be optimized for both discriminativeness and reconstruction during the tokenizer training phase. As a result, the off-the-shelf LLM is able to perform both image-to-text and text-to-image generation by incorporating our SEED through efficient LoRA tuning. Comprehensive multimodal pretraining and instruction tuning, which may yield improved results, are reserved for future investigation. This version of SEED was trained in 5.7 days using only 64 V100 GPUs and 5M publicly available image-text pairs. Our preliminary study emphasizes the great potential of discrete visual tokens in versatile multimodal LLMs and the importance of proper image tokenizers in broader research.

The great success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has expanded the potential of multimodality, contributing to the gradual evolution of General Artificial Intelligence (AGI). A true AGI agent should not only possess the capability to perform predefined multi-tasks but also exhibit emergent abilities in an open-world context. However, despite the considerable advancements made by recent multimodal LLMs, they still fall short in effectively unifying comprehension and generation tasks, let alone open-world emergent abilities. We contend that the key to overcoming the present impasse lies in enabling text and images to be represented and processed interchangeably within a unified autoregressive Transformer. To this end, we introduce SEED, an elaborate image tokenizer that empowers LLMs with the ability to SEE and Draw at the same time. We identify two crucial design principles: (1) Image tokens should be independent of 2D physical patch positions and instead be produced with a 1D causal dependency, exhibiting intrinsic interdependence that aligns with the left-to-right autoregressive prediction mechanism in LLMs. (2) Image tokens should capture high-level semantics consistent with the degree of semantic abstraction in words, and be optimized for both discriminativeness and reconstruction during the tokenizer training phase. With SEED tokens, LLM is able to perform scalable multimodal autoregression under its original training recipe, i.e., next-word prediction. SEED-LLaMA is therefore produced by large-scale pretraining and instruction tuning on the interleaved textual and visual data, demonstrating impressive performance on a broad range of multimodal comprehension and generation tasks. More importantly, SEED-LLaMA has exhibited compositional emergent abilities such as multi-turn in-context multimodal generation, acting like your AI assistant.

Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful knowledge bases yet are limited by static training data, leading to issues such as hallucinations and safety risks. Editing a model's internal knowledge through the locate-and-edit paradigm has proven a cost-effective alternative to retraining, though current unstructured approaches, especially window-based autoregressive methods, often disrupt the causal dependency between early memory updates and later output tokens. In this work, we first theoretically analyze these limitations and then introduce Matryoshka Unstructured Knowledge Editing (muKE), a novel memory update mechanism that preserves such dependencies via a Matryoshka-style objective and adaptive loss coefficients. Empirical evaluations on two models across four benchmarks demonstrate that muKE improves edit efficacy by up to 12.33% over state-of-the-art methods, and remains robust when applied to diverse formatted edits, underscoring its potential for effective unstructured knowledge editing in LLMs.

Effective root cause analysis (RCA) is vital for swiftly restoring services, minimizing losses, and ensuring the smooth operation and management of complex systems. Previous data-driven RCA methods, particularly those employing causal discovery techniques, have primarily focused on constructing dependency or causal graphs for backtracking the root causes. However, these methods often fall short as they rely solely on data from a single modality, thereby resulting in suboptimal solutions. In this work, we propose Mulan, a unified multi-modal causal structure learning method for root cause localization. We leverage a log-tailored language model to facilitate log representation learning, converting log sequences into time-series data. To explore intricate relationships across different modalities, we propose a contrastive learning-based approach to extract modality-invariant and modality-specific representations within a shared latent space. Additionally, we introduce a novel key performance indicator-aware attention mechanism for assessing modality reliability and co-learning a final causal graph. Finally, we employ random walk with restart to simulate system fault propagation and identify potential root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful sources of evidence for linguists seeking to develop theories of syntax. In this paper, we argue that causal interpretability methods, applied to LLMs, can greatly enhance the value of such evidence by helping us characterize the abstract mechanisms that LLMs learn to use. Our empirical focus is a set of English filler-gap dependency constructions (e.g., questions, relative clauses). Linguistic theories largely agree that these constructions share many properties. Using experiments based in Distributed Interchange Interventions, we show that LLMs converge on similar abstract analyses of these constructions. These analyses also reveal previously overlooked factors -- relating to frequency, filler type, and surrounding context -- that could motivate changes to standard linguistic theory. Overall, these results suggest that mechanistic, internal analyses of LLMs can push linguistic theory forward.

Multi-Label Text Classification (MLTC) aims to assign the most relevant labels to each given text. Existing methods demonstrate that label dependency can help to improve the model's performance. However, the introduction of label dependency may cause the model to suffer from unwanted prediction bias. In this study, we attribute the bias to the model's misuse of label dependency, i.e., the model tends to utilize the correlation shortcut in label dependency rather than fusing text information and label dependency for prediction. Motivated by causal inference, we propose a CounterFactual Text Classifier (CFTC) to eliminate the correlation bias, and make causality-based predictions. Specifically, our CFTC first adopts the predict-then-modify backbone to extract precise label information embedded in label dependency, then blocks the correlation shortcut through the counterfactual de-bias technique with the help of the human causal graph. Experimental results on three datasets demonstrate that our CFTC significantly outperforms the baselines and effectively eliminates the correlation bias in datasets.

Event Causality Identification (ECI) focuses on extracting causal relations between events in texts. Existing methods for ECI primarily rely on causal features and external knowledge. However, these approaches fall short in two dimensions: (1) causal features between events in a text often lack explicit clues, and (2) external knowledge may introduce bias, while specific problems require tailored analyses. To address these issues, we propose SemDI - a simple and effective Semantic Dependency Inquiry Network for ECI. SemDI captures semantic dependencies within the context using a unified encoder. Then, it utilizes a Cloze Analyzer to generate a fill-in token based on comprehensive context understanding. Finally, this fill-in token is used to inquire about the causal relation between two events. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of SemDI, surpassing state-of-the-art methods on three widely used benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/hrlics/SemDI.

The attention-based Transformers have been increasingly applied to audio classification because of their global receptive field and ability to handle long-term dependency. However, the existing frameworks which are mainly extended from the Vision Transformers are not perfectly compatible with audio signals. In this paper, we introduce a Causal Audio Transformer (CAT) consisting of a Multi-Resolution Multi-Feature (MRMF) feature extraction with an acoustic attention block for more optimized audio modeling. In addition, we propose a causal module that alleviates over-fitting, helps with knowledge transfer, and improves interpretability. CAT obtains higher or comparable state-of-the-art classification performance on ESC50, AudioSet and UrbanSound8K datasets, and can be easily generalized to other Transformer-based models.

Content moderation faces a challenging task as social media's ability to spread hate speech contrasts with its role in promoting global connectivity. With rapidly evolving slang and hate speech, the adaptability of conventional deep learning to the fluid landscape of online dialogue remains limited. In response, causality inspired disentanglement has shown promise by segregating platform specific peculiarities from universal hate indicators. However, its dependency on available ground truth target labels for discerning these nuances faces practical hurdles with the incessant evolution of platforms and the mutable nature of hate speech. Using confidence based reweighting and contrastive regularization, this study presents HATE WATCH, a novel framework of weakly supervised causal disentanglement that circumvents the need for explicit target labeling and effectively disentangles input features into invariant representations of hate. Empirical validation across platforms two with target labels and two without positions HATE WATCH as a novel method in cross platform hate speech detection with superior performance. HATE WATCH advances scalable content moderation techniques towards developing safer online communities.

Causal representation learning seeks to extract high-level latent factors from low-level sensory data. Most existing methods rely on observational data and structural assumptions (e.g., conditional independence) to identify the latent factors. However, interventional data is prevalent across applications. Can interventional data facilitate causal representation learning? We explore this question in this paper. The key observation is that interventional data often carries geometric signatures of the latent factors' support (i.e. what values each latent can possibly take). For example, when the latent factors are causally connected, interventions can break the dependency between the intervened latents' support and their ancestors'. Leveraging this fact, we prove that the latent causal factors can be identified up to permutation and scaling given data from perfect do interventions. Moreover, we can achieve block affine identification, namely the estimated latent factors are only entangled with a few other latents if we have access to data from imperfect interventions. These results highlight the unique power of interventional data in causal representation learning; they can enable provable identification of latent factors without any assumptions about their distributions or dependency structure.

Recent Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) present remarkable zero-shot conversational and reasoning capabilities given multimodal queries. Nevertheless, they suffer from object hallucination, a phenomenon where LVLMs are prone to generate textual responses not factually aligned with image inputs. Our pilot study reveals that object hallucination is closely tied with Rotary Position Encoding (RoPE), a widely adopted positional dependency modeling design in existing LVLMs. Due to the long-term decay in RoPE, LVLMs tend to hallucinate more when relevant visual cues are distant from instruction tokens in the multimodal input sequence. Additionally, we observe a similar effect when reversing the sequential order of visual tokens during multimodal alignment. Our tests indicate that long-term decay in RoPE poses challenges to LVLMs while capturing visual-instruction interactions across long distances. We propose Concentric Causal Attention (CCA), a simple yet effective positional alignment strategy that mitigates the impact of RoPE long-term decay in LVLMs by naturally reducing relative distance between visual and instruction tokens. With CCA, visual tokens can better interact with instruction tokens, thereby enhancing model's perception capability and alleviating object hallucination. Without bells and whistles, our positional alignment method surpasses existing hallucination mitigation strategies by large margins on multiple object hallucination benchmarks.

Although transformer architectures have achieved state-of-the-art performance across diverse domains, their quadratic computational complexity with respect to sequence length remains a significant bottleneck, particularly for latency-sensitive long-context applications. While recent linear-complexity alternatives are increasingly powerful, effectively training them from scratch is still resource-intensive. To overcome these limitations, we propose LAWCAT (Linear Attention with Convolution Across Time), a novel linearization framework designed to efficiently transfer the capabilities of pre-trained transformers into a performant linear attention architecture. LAWCAT integrates causal Conv1D layers to enhance local dependency modeling and employs normalized gated linear attention to improve generalization across varying context lengths. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that, distilling Mistral-7B with only 1K-length sequences yields over 90\% passkey retrieval accuracy up to 22K tokens, significantly extending its effective context window. Similarly, Llama3.2-1B LAWCAT variant achieves competitive performance on S-NIAH 1\&2\&3 tasks (1K-8K context length) and BABILong benchmark (QA2\&QA3, 0K-16K context length), requiring less than 0.1\% pre-training tokens compared with pre-training models. Furthermore, LAWCAT exhibits faster prefill speeds than FlashAttention-2 for sequences exceeding 8K tokens. LAWCAT thus provides an efficient pathway to high-performance, long-context linear models suitable for edge deployment, reducing reliance on extensive long-sequence training data and computational resources.

Long-video understanding remains a significant challenge for Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) due to inherent token limitations and the complexity of capturing long-term temporal dependencies. Existing methods often fail to capture the global context and complex event relationships necessary for deep video reasoning. To address this, we introduce GCAgent, a novel Global-Context-Aware Agent framework that achieves comprehensive long-video understanding. Our core innovation is the Schematic and Narrative Episodic Memory. This memory structurally models events and their causal and temporal relations into a concise, organized context, fundamentally resolving the long-term dependency problem. Operating in a multi-stage Perception-Action-Reflection cycle, our GCAgent utilizes a Memory Manager to retrieve relevant episodic context for robust, context-aware inference. Extensive experiments confirm that GCAgent significantly enhances long-video understanding, achieving up to 23.5\% accuracy improvement on the Video-MME Long split over a strong MLLM baseline. Furthermore, our framework establishes state-of-the-art performance among comparable 7B-scale MLLMs, achieving 73.4\% accuracy on the Long split and the highest overall average (71.9\%) on the Video-MME benchmark, validating our agent-based reasoning paradigm and structured memory for cognitively-inspired long-video understanding.

Understanding the abilities of LLMs to reason about natural language plans, such as instructional text and recipes, is critical to reliably using them in decision-making systems. A fundamental aspect of plans is the temporal order in which their steps needs to be executed, which reflects the underlying causal dependencies between them. We introduce CaT-Bench, a benchmark of Step Order Prediction questions, which test whether a step must necessarily occur before or after another in cooking recipe plans. We use this to evaluate how well frontier LLMs understand causal and temporal dependencies. We find that SOTA LLMs are underwhelming (best zero-shot is only 0.59 in F1), and are biased towards predicting dependence more often, perhaps relying on temporal order of steps as a heuristic. While prompting for explanations and using few-shot examples improve performance, the best F1 result is only 0.73. Further, human evaluation of explanations along with answer correctness show that, on average, humans do not agree with model reasoning. Surprisingly, we also find that explaining after answering leads to better performance than normal chain-of-thought prompting, and LLM answers are not consistent across questions about the same step pairs. Overall, results show that LLMs' ability to detect dependence between steps has significant room for improvement.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

Existing 3D scene generation methods often struggle to model the complex logical dependencies and physical constraints between objects, limiting their ability to adapt to dynamic and realistic environments. We propose CausalStruct, a novel framework that embeds causal reasoning into 3D scene generation. Utilizing large language models (LLMs), We construct causal graphs where nodes represent objects and attributes, while edges encode causal dependencies and physical constraints. CausalStruct iteratively refines the scene layout by enforcing causal order to determine the placement order of objects and applies causal intervention to adjust the spatial configuration according to physics-driven constraints, ensuring consistency with textual descriptions and real-world dynamics. The refined scene causal graph informs subsequent optimization steps, employing a Proportional-Integral-Derivative(PID) controller to iteratively tune object scales and positions. Our method uses text or images to guide object placement and layout in 3D scenes, with 3D Gaussian Splatting and Score Distillation Sampling improving shape accuracy and rendering stability. Extensive experiments show that CausalStruct generates 3D scenes with enhanced logical coherence, realistic spatial interactions, and robust adaptability.

Posterior sampling allows the exploitation of prior knowledge of the environment's transition dynamics to improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning. The prior is typically specified as a class of parametric distributions, a task that can be cumbersome in practice, often resulting in the choice of uninformative priors. In this work, we propose a novel posterior sampling approach in which the prior is given as a (partial) causal graph over the environment's variables. The latter is often more natural to design, such as listing known causal dependencies between biometric features in a medical treatment study. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian procedure, called C-PSRL, simultaneously learning the full causal graph at the higher level and the parameters of the resulting factored dynamics at the lower level. For this procedure, we provide an analysis of its Bayesian regret, which explicitly connects the regret rate with the degree of prior knowledge. Our numerical evaluation conducted in illustrative domains confirms that C-PSRL strongly improves the efficiency of posterior sampling with an uninformative prior while performing close to posterior sampling with the full causal graph.

This paper addresses the challenge of text-conditioned streaming motion generation, which requires us to predict the next-step human pose based on variable-length historical motions and incoming texts. Existing methods struggle to achieve streaming motion generation, e.g., diffusion models are constrained by pre-defined motion lengths, while GPT-based methods suffer from delayed response and error accumulation problem due to discretized non-causal tokenization. To solve these problems, we propose MotionStreamer, a novel framework that incorporates a continuous causal latent space into a probabilistic autoregressive model. The continuous latents mitigate information loss caused by discretization and effectively reduce error accumulation during long-term autoregressive generation. In addition, by establishing temporal causal dependencies between current and historical motion latents, our model fully utilizes the available information to achieve accurate online motion decoding. Experiments show that our method outperforms existing approaches while offering more applications, including multi-round generation, long-term generation, and dynamic motion composition. Project Page: https://zju3dv.github.io/MotionStreamer/

Despite recent advances in video understanding, the capabilities of Large Video Language Models (LVLMs) to perform video-based causal reasoning remains underexplored, largely due to the absence of relevant and dedicated benchmarks for evaluating causal reasoning in visually grounded and goal-driven settings. To fill this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark named Video-based long-form Causal Reasoning (VCRBench). We create VCRBench using procedural videos of simple everyday activities, where the steps are deliberately shuffled with each clip capturing a key causal event, to test whether LVLMs can identify, reason about, and correctly sequence the events needed to accomplish a specific goal. Moreover, the benchmark is carefully designed to prevent LVLMs from exploiting linguistic shortcuts, as seen in multiple-choice or binary QA formats, while also avoiding the challenges associated with evaluating open-ended QA. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art LVLMs on VCRBench suggests that these models struggle with video-based long-form causal reasoning, primarily due to their difficulty in modeling long-range causal dependencies directly from visual observations. As a simple step toward enabling such capabilities, we propose Recognition-Reasoning Decomposition (RRD), a modular approach that breaks video-based causal reasoning into two sub-tasks of video recognition and causal reasoning. Our experiments on VCRBench show that RRD significantly boosts accuracy on VCRBench, with gains of up to 25.2%. Finally, our thorough analysis reveals interesting insights, for instance, that LVLMs primarily rely on language knowledge for complex video-based long-form causal reasoning tasks.

Long-context autoregressive modeling has significantly advanced language generation, but video generation still struggles to fully utilize extended temporal contexts. To investigate long-context video modeling, we introduce Frame AutoRegressive (FAR), a strong baseline for video autoregressive modeling. Just as language models learn causal dependencies between tokens (i.e., Token AR), FAR models temporal causal dependencies between continuous frames, achieving better convergence than Token AR and video diffusion transformers. Building on FAR, we observe that long-context vision modeling faces challenges due to visual redundancy. Existing RoPE lacks effective temporal decay for remote context and fails to extrapolate well to long video sequences. Additionally, training on long videos is computationally expensive, as vision tokens grow much faster than language tokens. To tackle these issues, we propose balancing locality and long-range dependency. We introduce FlexRoPE, an test-time technique that adds flexible temporal decay to RoPE, enabling extrapolation to 16x longer vision contexts. Furthermore, we propose long short-term context modeling, where a high-resolution short-term context window ensures fine-grained temporal consistency, while an unlimited long-term context window encodes long-range information using fewer tokens. With this approach, we can train on long video sequences with a manageable token context length. We demonstrate that FAR achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short- and long-video generation, providing a simple yet effective baseline for video autoregressive modeling.

Test-Time Training (TTT) models context dependencies by adapting part of the model's weights (referred to as fast weights) during inference. This fast weight, akin to recurrent states in RNNs, stores temporary memories of past tokens in the current sequence. Existing TTT methods struggled to show effectiveness in handling long-context data, due to their inefficiency on modern GPUs. The TTT layers in many of these approaches operate with extremely low FLOPs utilization (often <5%) because they deliberately apply small online minibatch sizes (e.g., updating fast weights every 16 or 64 tokens). Moreover, a small minibatch implies fine-grained block-wise causal dependencies in the data, unsuitable for data beyond 1D ordered sequences, like sets or N-dimensional grids such as images or videos. In contrast, we pursue the opposite direction by using an extremely large chunk update, ranging from 2K to 1M tokens across tasks of varying modalities, which we refer to as Large Chunk Test-Time Training (LaCT). It improves hardware utilization by orders of magnitude, and more importantly, facilitates scaling of nonlinear state size (up to 40% of model parameters), hence substantially improving state capacity, all without requiring cumbersome and error-prone kernel implementations. It also allows easy integration of sophisticated optimizers, e.g. Muon for online updates. We validate our approach across diverse modalities and tasks, including novel view synthesis with image set, language models, and auto-regressive video diffusion. Our approach can scale up to 14B-parameter AR video diffusion model on sequences up to 56K tokens. In our longest sequence experiment, we perform novel view synthesis with 1 million context length. We hope this work will inspire and accelerate new research in the field of long-context modeling and test-time training. Website: https://tianyuanzhang.com/projects/ttt-done-right

Autoregressive models excel in modeling sequential dependencies by enforcing causal constraints, yet they struggle to capture complex bidirectional patterns due to their unidirectional nature. In contrast, mask-based models leverage bidirectional context, enabling richer dependency modeling. However, they often assume token independence during prediction, which undermines the modeling of sequential dependencies. Additionally, the corruption of sequences through masking or absorption can introduce unnatural distortions, complicating the learning process. To address these issues, we propose Bidirectional Autoregressive Diffusion (BAD), a novel approach that unifies the strengths of autoregressive and mask-based generative models. BAD utilizes a permutation-based corruption technique that preserves the natural sequence structure while enforcing causal dependencies through randomized ordering, enabling the effective capture of both sequential and bidirectional relationships. Comprehensive experiments show that BAD outperforms autoregressive and mask-based models in text-to-motion generation, suggesting a novel pre-training strategy for sequence modeling. The codebase for BAD is available on https://github.com/RohollahHS/BAD.

Real-world tasks consist of multiple inter-dependent subtasks (e.g., a dirty pan needs to be washed before it can be used for cooking). In this work, we aim to model the causal dependencies between such subtasks from instructional videos describing the task. This is a challenging problem since complete information about the world is often inaccessible from videos, which demands robust learning mechanisms to understand the causal structure of events. We present Multimodal Subtask Graph Generation (MSG2), an approach that constructs a Subtask Graph defining the dependency between a task's subtasks relevant to a task from noisy web videos. Graphs generated by our multimodal approach are closer to human-annotated graphs compared to prior approaches. MSG2 further performs the downstream task of next subtask prediction 85% and 30% more accurately than recent video transformer models in the ProceL and CrossTask datasets, respectively.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Chain-of-thought traces have been shown to improve performance of large language models in a plethora of reasoning tasks, yet there is no consensus on the mechanism through which this performance boost is achieved. To shed more light on this, we introduce Causal CoT Graphs (CCGs), which are directed acyclic graphs automatically extracted from reasoning traces that model fine-grained causal dependencies in the language model output. A collection of 1671 mathematical reasoning problems from MATH500, GSM8K and AIME, and their associated CCGs are compiled into our dataset -- KisMATH. Our detailed empirical analysis with 15 open-weight LLMs shows that (i) reasoning nodes in the CCG are mediators for the final answer, a condition necessary for reasoning; and (ii) LLMs emphasise reasoning paths given by the CCG, indicating that models internally realise structures akin to our graphs. KisMATH enables controlled, graph-aligned interventions and opens up avenues for further investigation into the role of chain-of-thought in LLM reasoning.

While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) excel on benchmarks, their processing paradigm differs from the human ability to integrate visual information. Unlike humans who naturally bridge details and high-level concepts, models tend to treat these elements in isolation. Prevailing evaluation protocols often decouple low-level perception from high-level reasoning, overlooking their semantic and causal dependencies, which yields non-diagnostic results and obscures performance bottlenecks. We present VCU-Bridge, a framework that operationalizes a human-like hierarchy of visual connotation understanding: multi-level reasoning that advances from foundational perception through semantic bridging to abstract connotation, with an explicit evidence-to-inference trace from concrete cues to abstract conclusions. Building on this framework, we construct HVCU-Bench, a benchmark for hierarchical visual connotation understanding with explicit, level-wise diagnostics. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate a consistent decline in performance as reasoning progresses to higher levels. We further develop a data generation pipeline for instruction tuning guided by Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and show that strengthening low-level capabilities yields measurable gains at higher levels. Interestingly, it not only improves on HVCU-Bench but also brings benefits on general benchmarks (average +2.53%), especially with substantial gains on MMStar (+7.26%), demonstrating the significance of the hierarchical thinking pattern and its effectiveness in enhancing MLLM capabilities. The project page is at https://vcu-bridge.github.io .

Normalizing flows (NFs) are end-to-end likelihood-based generative models for continuous data, and have recently regained attention with encouraging progress on image generation. Yet in the video generation domain, where spatiotemporal complexity and computational cost are substantially higher, state-of-the-art systems almost exclusively rely on diffusion-based models. In this work, we revisit this design space by presenting STARFlow-V, a normalizing flow-based video generator with substantial benefits such as end-to-end learning, robust causal prediction, and native likelihood estimation. Building upon the recently proposed STARFlow, STARFlow-V operates in the spatiotemporal latent space with a global-local architecture which restricts causal dependencies to a global latent space while preserving rich local within-frame interactions. This eases error accumulation over time, a common pitfall of standard autoregressive diffusion model generation. Additionally, we propose flow-score matching, which equips the model with a light-weight causal denoiser to improve the video generation consistency in an autoregressive fashion. To improve the sampling efficiency, STARFlow-V employs a video-aware Jacobi iteration scheme that recasts inner updates as parallelizable iterations without breaking causality. Thanks to the invertible structure, the same model can natively support text-to-video, image-to-video as well as video-to-video generation tasks. Empirically, STARFlow-V achieves strong visual fidelity and temporal consistency with practical sampling throughput relative to diffusion-based baselines. These results present the first evidence, to our knowledge, that NFs are capable of high-quality autoregressive video generation, establishing them as a promising research direction for building world models. Code and generated samples are available at https://github.com/apple/ml-starflow.

Understanding causal event relationships and achieving fine-grained temporal grounding in videos remain challenging for vision-language models. Existing methods either compress video tokens to reduce temporal resolution, or treat videos as unsegmented streams, which obscures fine-grained event boundaries and limits the modeling of causal dependencies. We propose TEMPURA (Temporal Event Masked Prediction and Understanding for Reasoning in Action), a two-stage training framework that enhances video temporal understanding. TEMPURA first applies masked event prediction reasoning to reconstruct missing events and generate step-by-step causal explanations from dense event annotations, drawing inspiration from effective infilling techniques. TEMPURA then learns to perform video segmentation and dense captioning to decompose videos into non-overlapping events with detailed, timestamp-aligned descriptions. We train TEMPURA on VER, a large-scale dataset curated by us that comprises 1M training instances and 500K videos with temporally aligned event descriptions and structured reasoning steps. Experiments on temporal grounding and highlight detection benchmarks demonstrate that TEMPURA outperforms strong baseline models, confirming that integrating causal reasoning with fine-grained temporal segmentation leads to improved video understanding.

Market generators using deep generative models have shown promise for synthetic financial data generation, but existing approaches lack causal reasoning capabilities essential for counterfactual analysis and risk assessment. We propose a Time-series Neural Causal Model VAE (TNCM-VAE) that combines variational autoencoders with structural causal models to generate counterfactual financial time series while preserving both temporal dependencies and causal relationships. Our approach enforces causal constraints through directed acyclic graphs in the decoder architecture and employs the causal Wasserstein distance for training. We validate our method on synthetic autoregressive models inspired by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, demonstrating superior performance in counterfactual probability estimation with L1 distances as low as 0.03-0.10 compared to ground truth. The model enables financial stress testing, scenario analysis, and enhanced backtesting by generating plausible counterfactual market trajectories that respect underlying causal mechanisms.